Most countries seem to be pleased with the outcome of Conference of the Parties 16 (COP16) in Cancun last year. That is, most parties except for a very influential bloc, the BASIC countries.
India, China, Brazil and South Africa, who were prominent in the Copenhagen round in 2009 met this weekend in Delhi, India to discuss the negotiating strategy for the upcoming COP17 in Durban, South Africa.
The conclusion was that the agreements made in Cancun cannot be a substitute for the Bali Road Map. This will make the forthcoming negotiations tricky. While negotiators have realized that smaller steps need to be taken over large formal treaties, the BASIC countries are suggesting to address more issues than in Cancun.
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) hosts a series of smaller meetings throughout the year to prepare for the Super Bowl of climate policy, COP, at the end of the year. This non-UNFCCC meeting by the BASIC countries marks the first climate meeting since Cancun in December.
Without BASIC country collaboration, negotiation will be difficult, especially since United States climate envoy Todd Stern recently said he wants developing country participation and commitment. Stern doubted a legally-binding agreement in Durban and said the U.S. would be “perfectly comfortable with a legal agreement provided it’s legally binding with respect to all the major players and that includes China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia etc. Our pretty strong impression is that it’s not on the cards yet. China, India and others are not prepared to take on that legally binding agreement yet.”
This weekend reiterated possible roadblocks in further negotiations as India’s Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh said that the lack of fast-start financing is a disappointment and betrayal of trust. "All of us welcomed the Cancun Agreements as they provided a stage for resolution of some outstanding political issues. We were equally convinced that the Cancun Agreements are not a substitute for the Bali Road Map that is not present in the Cancun Agreements. BASIC countries will make every effort to bring these issues back in the main stream of global climate change negotiations," said Ramesh.
So instead of using the Cancun agreements as a springboard for future action, the BASIC countries want to return to those agreements and work out additional negotiations. Issues not addressed in Cancun include equity, intellectual property rights and trade, all of which could be re-introduced in Durban.
The issue of the $30 billion in fast-start financing to developing countries is also of particular interest. So far, it has not been distributed. According to Ramesh, “The disbursement has not even exceeded two digits.”
Because there is no official framework on who will receive the money and how much they will receive, the statement by the BASIC countries over climate finance has the ability to create more divisions in the already fragile international climate conferences.
So while most predict that Durban will be a continuation of the progress made in Cancun, negotiators also might need to include additional issues that were not addressed at last year’s COP. If equity, intellectual property rights and trade are included on top of the agreements in Cancun, then it is possible that there will be little progress on a bunch of issues, rather than much progress on a few.
Lynann Butkiewicz is Managing Editor of Weathervane.
