Concern about worldwide climate change is sharpening. One cause of warming, and apparently the major one, is the carbon dioxide that goes into the air when people burn fossil fuels to generate energy.
The central policy questions focus on how to cut the world's reliance on these fuels without crippling economies that depend on electric power and fast, flexible transportation.
For the past two decades, most of the world's governments have struggled with these issues. At a 1992 conference in Rio de Janeiro, they adopted a treaty that called for stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere -- carbon dioxide is the most important of them -- at a level that would prevent "dangerous" interference with the climate system. But no one knew then, or knows now, exactly what that level might be.
Five years later, at a similar conference in Kyoto, Japan, those governments wrote an extension of the Rio treaty to put limits on the greenhouse emissions of three dozen industrialized countries. After long uncertainty and negotiation, the Kyoto Treaty went into force on February 16, 2005. But several concerns remain.
The United States, by far the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, has refused to join the treaty. Nor does Kyoto put limits on developing countries, where emissions are now rising most rapidly. China and India are now major sources.
The 189 countries that joined in the Rio Treaty have continued to gather periodically to assess progress and discuss further action. Their next meeting, COP-11 -- the eleventh conference of the parties to the Rio treaty --- will take place in Montreal, Canada, Nov. 28 to Dec. 9, 2005. Since the emissions limits imposed by Kyoto run only through 2012, the main issue now is extending and possibly changing the nature of those commitments. One looming question is how to bring in the major economies that are not yet participating, the United States, China and India.
Meanwhile the European Union has embarked on its own regime of emissions reductions, with a complex system of emissions trading to hold down the cost.
RFF researchers have been following these developments closely.
Billy Pizer describes the present state of the international discussion ("Now that Kyoto has gone into force, what comes next"?). Ray Kopp considers how the world can make the most of it ("So Kyoto Is Going Into Effect -- How Do We Make It Work?"). Roger Sedjo ("Beyond Kyoto") and Kopp ("Next Steps in Global Climate Policy: Time for a Reality Check") write about the options for taking Kyoto beyond its first stage.
In New Approaches on Energy and the Environment: Policy Advice for the President, published in November by RFF, Robert W. Fri calls on the U.S. to rejoin and take the lead in the worldwide effort to control climate change (Chapter 1. Taking the Lead on Climate Change). In another chapter of the book, Raymond J. Kopp, Richard D. Morgenstern, Richard G. Newell, and William Pizer discuss the means of stimulating technology to slow climate change (Chapter 2. Stimulating Technology to Slow Climate Change).
Featured RFF work on Climate Change:
A Ten-Year Rule to Guide the Allocation of EU Emission Allowances
Markus Åhman, Dallas Burtraw, Joseph Kruger, and Lars Zetterberg
Member States in the EU are responsible for National Allocation Plans governing the initial distribution of emission allowances in the CO2 Emission Trading System.
This paper examines finds the treatment of closures and new entrants is inconsistent with the general guidelines provided by EU by providing inefficient incentives that are likely to affect firm behavior. We propose a Ten-Year Rule as a component of future EU guidance that provides a transition to resolve these inconsistencies and balances fairness with efficiency. (For a longer version of this paper, download RFF Discussion Paper 05-30.)
