A new report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that 80 percent the world’s energy can come from renewable sources by 2050.
In this scenario, renewables may displace fossil fuels, resulting in a significant decrease in greenhouse gas emissions.
[caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="480" caption="(Image by: IPCC – Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation)"]
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According to the Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation…
Four illustrative scenarios span a range of global cumulative CO2 savings between 2010 and 2050 from about 220 to 560 Gt CO2 compared to about 1530 Gt cumulative fossil and industrial CO2 emissions in the IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 Reference scenario during the same period. The precise attribution of mitigation potentials to renewable energy depends on the role scenarios attribute to specific mitigation technologies, on complex system behaviors and, in particular, on the energy sources that renewable energy displaces. Therefore, attribution of precise mitigation potentials to renewable energy should be viewed with appropriate caution.
This announcement comes two weeks after United States climate envoy Todd Stern and European Union climate chief Connie Hedegaard said that a legally-binding agreement at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of Parties 17 (COP17) in Durban this year is impossible.
“The good news is that there is a general recognition of the necessity of a legally binding agreement,” Hedegaard said. “The bad news is that no legally binding agreement deal will be done in Durban.”
Meanwhile Stern said, "I think that there are different views about the sort of degree of necessity or not of a legally binding agreement. Our view in the U.S. is that it is not a necessary thing to happen right away.”
These statements may come as a disappointment to the climate policy community, but the report by the IPCC actually sheds some relief on the future of climate policy.
If renewable energy is expected to source 80 percent of the world’s energy by 2050, then that will create greater competition, rev up the renewables market, and inspire innovation. Of course, as the report says, mitigation potential depends on mitigation technologies, creating a stronger argument to make these technologies more affordable and easier to implement.
So, it is not the end of the world if a legally-binding agreement does not emerge in the next COP. This is another case of where the private sector can fill in the gap of stalled commitments.
Still, the UNFCCC plays an important role in making sure this happens. The Green Climate Fund will make it possible for developing countries to afford clean energy technology. As we’ve said before, the expected $100 billion will not pay for everything, but it can be used to boost clean energy technology investment in these countries and inspire growth and innovation.
So, while there may be doubt over a legally-binding agreement in Durban this year, the IPCC report highlights potential progress in the private sector that can be supplemented by agreements in the UNFCCC if a legally-binding agreement is not possible.
