At the G8 forum last week in Italy, world leaders agreed (in this non-binding declaration) they will work to keep the Earth from warming by more than 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrialized levels in the next 40 years. Some reports indicate this agreement fell short of ambitions to get major developing economies—namely China and India—to agree to more specific goals to reach the global target of a 50 percent reduction in total emissions by 2050.
Still, meeting the two degree goal in the next 40 years will be challenge enough. A reduction of that magnitude, approximately equivalent to a reduction of atmospheric C02 to 450 parts per million, would require the near-simultaneous and successful deployment of all available low-carbon energy technologies and massive international cooperation, according to a 2008 Congressional testimony from RFF’s Ray Kopp.
In his testimony, prepared last year for the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, Kopp examined the International Energy Agency’s Energy Technology Perspectives 2008: Scenarios and Strategies to 2050, a report that outlined the scope of investment in new energy technologies to achieve a 2 degree reduction.
In his remarks, Kopp said public policy—especially a price on carbon to stimulate research, development and demonstration (RD&D)—will be integral in advancing new energy strategies and bringing them online. Still, specific energy sources each have their unique barriers to overcome:
Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS): Capturing and sequestering CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants and eventually all fossil combustion is a foundational technology component of any emissions reduction plan targeting 450 ppm CO2 … Regulations for the storage of CO2 must be written, storage sites selected, almost assured local opposition to storage to overcome, and a vast CO2-transport infrastructure sited, financed, and constructed.
Nuclear Power: The IEA report suggests that 30 percent of global energy needs could be met by nuclear power, and in the IEA BLUE scenario, global nuclear power generation triples … Reactor safety concerns continue to limit public support for nuclear power. Long-term waste storage hangs over the head of the industry. Concerns of proliferation are very real and would be exacerbated by greatly increased growth in spent-fuel reprocessing, and a worldwide lack of skilled engineers is a drag on the expansion of the technology.
Bioenergy: Both for purposes of electricity generation and the production of liquid fuels for transport, bioenergy is essential in the IEA scenarios and is the largest renewable energy source … Bioenergy will compete worldwide for land used to produce food and fiber, raising the cost of all three. Accelerated bioenergy production in the United States can drive local land-use decisions and have direct impacts—both good and bad—on local rural development. Expanding the production of crops for bioenergy can affect U.S. environmental quality, including adverse impacts to biodiversity and water quality, as well as create international challenges to ecosystems and biodiversity through increased deforestation. Public policies to address the land-use issues raised by increased bioenergy production in the United States are just as important to the expansion of this technology as carbon pricing and R&D.
Wind and Solar Power: One of the great renewable energy successes is wind-generated electricity. While it has proven to be an increasingly economical renewable energy source, it can still benefit from a carbon charge and additional RD&D. However, wind is generated where the wind blows, not necessarily where you find the electricity load centers. Transmission thus becomes crucial. The current U.S. grid is not designed to take full advantage of western or offshore wind resources. Therefore carefully planned grid expansion will be required for a large-scale increase in wind-generated electricity. This is likely true for solar as well. A greatly expanded and improved electricity transmissions grid has been a U.S. priority for at least two decades; however, given the manner in which we regulate and finance transmission, very little progress has been made. In addition, intermittency will always be a problem with wind, meaning the electricity system must be designed to accommodate for intermittency with sufficient reserve capacity, storage, and interconnected systems.
Kopp went on to say that in addition to capital investments, the technological efforts will likely require time-consuming RD&D and equally lengthy policy discussions. He said one of the most promising ways to meet the reduction goal by 2050 is through avoided deforestation—a strategy included in the current U.S. climate bill.
