Members of The Green Climate Fund’s Transitional Committee are meeting today in Mexico City to discuss details that will be finalized at United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of Parties 17 (COP17) in Durban later this year.
So let’s see where the Fund currently stands.
The Green Climate Fund was established in Cancun last December to act as a financial mechanism to provide mitigation and adaptation action to developing countries. The World Bank will serve as trustee to the Fund for the first three years and the UN recently announced the 40 members of the Transitional Committee, an equal representation of developed and developing countries.
Some on the list include the United States, United Kingdom, Japan, Russia (which is an interesting member choice, after today’s comments by Russian officials that it should not be responsible for contributing to climate adaptation funding), Bangladesh, Brazil, China, and India. Also, one of the co-chairs of the committee goes to COP17 host South Africa’s National Planning Minister Trevor Manuel.
While the details of the fund are being hammered out, RFF’s Andrew Stevenson has speculated on the size and scope of the Fund.
In regards to the division of mitigation versus adaptation funding, Andrew estimates…
According to Project Catalyst, historically climate finance has been about 80 percent for mitigation and 20 percent for adaptation, but has been trending towards 50/50 in recent years for some countries. Assuming a 60/40 split between bilateral and multilateral and a 50/50 split between mitigation and adaptation, this leaves about $10 billion in new multilateral funding for adaptation. Although “significant share” is not defined in the text of the Cancun Agreements, a rough estimate could be greater than 50 percent, or about $5 billion. Even if $100 billion is used as a starting point – thus assuming the pledge will be met completely with public funding – and the 60/40 and 50/50 splits are applied, this leaves a total of at least $10 billion, to be supplemented by some mitigation funding.
In terms of the overall size of the Fund…
Overall, therefore, a rough estimate is that at least $15 billion and upwards of $60 billion could flow through the Green Climate Fund during a notional pledging period that coincides with the time period of the $100 billion pledge. There is little basis in current negotiating texts, analyses or historical data to suggest the Fund will be substantially larger. Of course, shifts could happen away from mitigation funding and towards adaptation (which in the current text seems more likely to flow through the Green Climate Fund), or away from bilateral and towards multilateral for both mitigation and adaptation, although if they occur, these are likely to be modest shifts. Even in those cases, however, the size will ultimately be limited by the scarce public funds countries can raise, which in the foreseeable political context seem unlikely to significantly surpass $50 billion per year by 2020.
While the exact details of these meetings today (many are closed door sessions) are unclear so far, this is where the Green Climate Fund stands as of today. By the end of the week, hopefully light will be shed on what can be expected to be agreed upon in Durban.