Committee action in the House of Representatives on the Waxman-Markey bill not only is a major step toward passage by the full House but also should strengthen the prospects for Senate action and a new law during this term of Congress.
In 2008, the Senate trial run on Lieberman-Warner exposed the political need to bridge regional concerns, ease the transition costs, and attract committed support from a range of interests beyond environmental activists.
In this case, Chairman Waxman and Reps. Boucher, Dingel and Markey, among, others, crafted compromises that brought together climate-activist states on the coasts with coal-producing and coal burning states in the Midwest and Southeast. They blunted the early impact on various regions, on trade-sensitive industries, and potentially on low-income citizens. And the final bill garnered outside support from businesses, unions, and environmentalists.
The key political glue, of course, was the distribution of free allowances in the early years. This is a path the Senate was expected to ultimately pursue, though any Senate negotiation will likely produce a different pattern of distribution. The surprise to some observers was that a strong environmentalist like Chairman Waxman came to these compromises early in the process, creating a political path that should help the Senate find a path to passage and should make it easier to get a final agreement between the House and Senate. We saw a similar political pattern in the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, in which the SO2 cap-and-trade system was adopted. Both Houses got on the same track. In contrast, in 1978 when the House and Senate took dramatically different paths regarding price regulation of natural gas, it was nearly impossible to find common ground to gain final passage, though it did finally happen.
There are plenty of issues in this complex legislation that will generate controversy in House and certainly in the Senate, but it looks like the basic framework is gelling.
Still, there is important substantive work yet to be done. The complex legislative process allows for reflection and feedback on the various provisions. At the end of the day, it is important that the policy that emerges from political compromise be workable and effective.
